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Oats Futures Market Analysis

Free in-depth market analysis on the Oats futures market written by a professional Oats futures trader.

May 05, 2013

Oats Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The Oat future (ZON13) traded up marginally today ahead of the USDA Production and Supply Demand update tomorrow. Traders will also be setting up for the weekly crop progress data on Monday. ZON13 continues to trade in a sixty-eight cent range defined by the 3.40 low on January 08 and the roughly 4.08 high on March 27. Moving forward planting progress and unfolding weather conditions, both in the US and globally, will be followed closely for price direction.

Initial support over the near term may come in at 3.68-3.74, with stronger support at 3.52-3.61. Initial resistance may appear at 3.91-3.97, with stronger resistance 4.00-4.09.

April 16, 2013

Oats Futures Trader, Van Commodities. Inc.

The Oat future (ZOK13) appears to be consolidating the roughly fourteen percent sell off after the USDA’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Planting data March 28. The contract traded down to 3.55 from 4.148 over a five day period, along with the sell off in the rest of the Gain and Oil Seed complex.

The data which took many grain traders by surprise resulted in a selling frenzy which left ZOK13 in an oversold condition, based on several momentum studies. The contract looks as though further downside may be in store over the intermediate term.  Over the near term initial resistance may come in at 3.81-3.85, with stronger selling at 3.92-4.00.  Over the intermediate term initial support may appear at 3.50, with stronger support at 3.35-3.42.

March 31, 2013

Oats Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The USDA Grain Stocks and Planting Intention data reported on March 28, 2013 was taken badly by bullish grain and oilseed traders. Grain prices swiftly traded down as the data hit screens. Oat futures (ZOK13), which had traded up roughly twenty-four percent over the preceding twelve weeks, traded down twenty cents.

ZOK13 had become overbought based on several short term momentum studies on the eighty cent move from the January 08 low to the intraday high today just short of 4.15. ZOK13 appears to have more downside action coming over the near term. Initial resistance may come in at 4.00-4.03, with stronger selling at 4.05-4.07.  ZOK13 may find a short term reprieve at 3.74-3.80. Better support may come in at 3.56-3.65.

February 7, 2013

Oats Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

The Oat Future (ZOH13) has rallied close to seventeen percent since hitting a low January 7. The move has outpaced the rally in Wheat, Soybean, and Corn futures over the time period. ZOH13 continued to trade strongly again today ahead of the USDA Supply Demand data on Friday. The contract is overbought based on several short term momentum indicators. Initial resistance may come in at 3.85-3.87 and further resistance at 3.96. Initial support may come in at 3.69-3.74 and stronger support at 3.62-3.65.

January 24, 2013

Oats Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The oats future contract (ZOH13) has rallied ten percent over the past three weeks, after becoming deeply oversold on the sell off from December 07, 2012, January 07. ZOH13 is marginally overbought and has traded back up to its 200 day moving average at 364.00. It would not surprise to find profit taking in the 3.64-3.70 area. Over the near term, support may come in at 3.47-3.51 with stronger support at 3.40-3.42. If the market trades below this support the trend may have turned lower.

December 13, 2012

Oats Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

The Oat front month future (ZOH13) continues to trade in a more constructive fashion than wheat (ZWH13) and corn futures (ZCH13). ZWH13 broke down below support at the bottom of its four and half month trading range; on the back of the most recent USDA crop report on December 11th. ZCH13 retested the lower end of its two and half month trading range. ZOH13 held up at the higher end of its trading range. 

ZOH13 continues to work off its overbought condition, based on short term momentum indicators and intermediate term indicators which have just turned up and would be supportive of further upside action. Initial support should come in at 3.81-3.83 with more significant support at 3.71-3.75. Initial resistance may come in at 3.95-4.00 and further resistance at 4.05-4.10.

December 05, 2012

Oats Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

Oats basis the March future (ZOH13) traded up to a trendline just under $4.00, drawn off the September 04, 2012 and October 18, 2012 highs. After being up $.15 on an intraday basis, the contract backed off closing at $3.97 up $.12 from yesterday’s close. The pattern being traced out by ZOH12 appears to favor a bullish stance over the intermediate term.  

A couple of short term momentum studies are becoming overbought; but intermediate studies, basis the weekly nearest futures- priced off of the December contract are just beginning to unwind an oversold condition.  Over the near term initial resistance should come in at 4.03-4.05 and then 4.08-4.10. Initial support should come in at 3.86-3.91 and then 3.77-3.81.

April 19, 2012

Van Commodities, Inc., Oats Trader

Oat futures, basis the May contract (OK12) is trading a range from 2.82 on the downside to 3.50 on the upside, in the intermediate term. The oat market is oversold based on several momentum studies and a bounce up would not surprise. Resistance should come in at 3.34-3.38 with an initial downside objective of 3.12.